Modelling wheat and sugar markets in Eastern and Southern Africa. Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI)

The medium-term outlook for wheat and sugar markets in Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia depicts a mixed picture with regard to production, consumption, prices and trade development. It takes the latest trends, policies and market information into consideration, but remains subject to many uncertainties on upcoming market development, macroeconomics or policy changes over the period 2015 to 2024.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Hotspots of vulnerability and disruption in food value chains during COVID-19 in South Africa: industry- and firm-level “pivoting” in response

We use a primary data set from a survey of medium and large firms and farms in the beef, citrus, and maize value chains in South Africa during March-June 2020, the early and late phases of the initial COVID-19 lockdowns. We have five main findings. (1) The initial lockdown regulations declared as “essential” the product (vertical) value chains but left as “inessential” the important “lateral” value chains delivering labour, materials, and logistics to the segments of the vertical value chains. This hurt the three vertical value chains as constraints in the laterals choked key segments of the verticals. (2) Vulnerability of the whole value chain emanated from vulnerability to shocks of critical “hotspot” linchpin segments (such as livestock auctions) or infrastructure (such as at ports). (3) Collective, industry-level “pivoting” was crucial both to organize the private sector response and to interact with government to course-correct on COVID-19 policies. (4) Responses to pre-COVID-19 challenges (such as drought and international phytosanitary rule changes) had prepared the beef and citrus value chain actors to respond collectively to the pandemic challenges. (5) Individual firm- and segment-level “pivoting” was also crucial for resilience, such as cattle auctions going on-line with the help of e-commerce firms.http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ragr202023-06-24hj2023Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on Farm Income and Government Programs

Eliminating retaliatory tariffs would increase U.S. agricultural exports and commodity prices. Considering cross-commodity effects and impacts on production expenses and farm bill programs, the estimated impact on net farm income is about $5 billion in 2020, less than the value of market facilitation program payments in 2018 and 2019

Regional Price Transmission in Southern African Maize Markets

In light of the importance of maize as a staple crop in Southern Africa, as well as its prioritisation from a policy perspective, this study evaluates the extent of price transmission between selected maize markets in the region. It employs secondary data of weekly white maize prices in seven markets in the region to quantify the long and short run price relationships between relevant markets based on geographic proximity and expected trade patterns. While several authors have noted the isolation of white maize markets in Southern Africa from the global market, this study finds evidence of co-integration between multiple maize markets within the Southern African region. By implication, policy decisions affecting prices in any single country will influence price levels in multiple surrounding markets, impacting on both producer and consumer welfare not only in the country of application but also in the region as a whole

Trade liberalisation in Kenya : a modelling linkage for wheat and maize

Kenya has become a driving force of trade integration at the regional and continental level, albeit that this process is still incomplete. Kenya was the first nation, along with Ghana, to ratify the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in May 2018, as it was already engaged with its main trading partners. Trade policy can generate mixed effects across the economy and within the agricultural sector, reflecting differences between markets and commodities. In this paper we argue that a mix of modelling approaches is preferable in order to capture the complexities of these changes. A dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium model provides broad sectoral and macro-economic effects, which are then incorporated into a partial equilibrium framework for a detailed analysis at the sector level. We demonstrate this using the maize and wheat markets in Kenya as examples. Combining the output of each modelling approach allows the analysis to explicitly include certain characteristics of single markets, particularly regional trade relationships and differences in pricing structure that would be missed by using a single approach in isolation. It shows that further intra-African trade liberalisation will affect wheat markets more than maize in Kenya but, given the low initial tariff levels, the ultimate effects will remain fairly small.https://afjare.orgAgricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Developmen

The impact of the 2015/16 drought on staple maize markets in Southern and Eastern Africa

The Southern African region experienced the worst drought in more than a century in the 2015/16 production season, which had a severe impact on staple maize markets. Public and private sector response varied across the region and the level of accuracy on information with respect to crop estimates and the anticipated impact on stock levels, trade flow and prices became critical. To this end, the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI) has in recent years developed a multi-faceted approach to policy research that includes farm-level, sector-level and value chain analysis within a Strategic Foresighting frame-work. This initiative is supported by the capacity building and training in partial equilibrium modelling under the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP)

Conundrums of Buddhist Cosmology and Psychology

Despite the Buddha’s renowned aversion to metaphysical-cum-cosmological speculation, ostensibly cosmological systems have proliferated in Buddhist traditions. Debates persist over how to interpret these systems, a central puzzle being the relation between apparently cosmological and psychological aspects. This article critically analyzes three main interpretive orientations, namely: psychologization, literalism, and the one reality view. After examining a tendency in the third of these to equivocate between talk of two co-referential vocabularies and talk of two corresponding orders, I discuss at length the debate between literalist and psychologizing approaches. The latter emphasize how accounts of “realms of existence” are most cogently read as figurative descriptions of mental states, whereas literalists argue that at least some of the accounts should be understood cosmologically, as descriptions of spatiotemporal regions. Notwithstanding weaknesses in some literalist arguments, the importance to Buddhist soteriology of a conception of rebirth beyond one’s present life counts against psychologizing approaches that either ignore or downplay this importance. Returning to the one-reality view, I develop the idea that it is the existential state being described that constitutes the common factor between “cosmological” and “psychological” passages. Treating the texts in an overly literal-minded manner, I suggest, risks missing these descriptions’ affective and conative significance